Abstract

COVID-19 pandemic is one of the most world deadly viruses that has affected many nations from almost all perspectives. Many countries put very stringent measures on mobility to stem the transmission of the virus, bringing economic activity to a halt. This research uses questionnaires, semi-structured interviews, and data from last financial setback to anticipate later economic repercussions in the United Kingdom (UK) (Flynn et al., 2020). The performance of three key business in the United Kingdom (building, creation, and industries) was studied comparing with the pattern of prior economic challenges. According to continuous value estimates, GDP growth in 2021 was expected to stay stable, although with a 7% decline compared to the reference values before the virus (De Lyon & Dhingra, 2021).

Furthermore, the categorical projections imply that after the first quarter of 2021, there will be no quarterly reduction in GDP (Wylie, 2020). This research will offer evidence-based data on COVID-19’s economic consequences, which is utilized to plan essential recovery processes and execute suitable financial assistance activities. Despite the massive drop in GDP, the unemployment rate remained very low during the pandemic, rising only to 6.0 percent in the fourth quarter of 2020. Inflation fell to less than 1 percent towards the end of 2020, following GDP, and will stay stable for the rest of the year. As a result, the UK faced massive inflation by 2020, although inflation remained over 0% (Jallow et al., 2020). During the pandemic, the UK implemented several monetary and health measures that influenced the economy. The health policy of the United Kingdom had the most extensive economic effect, with the restriction producing important drops in financial sector and Gross Domestic Product. Though, the state’s immunization campaign is the key to ending of restrictions and resuming pre-pandemic financial activities. The UK must promote consumption and keep unemployment low to facilitate a faster economic recovery.

Keywords: COVID-19; economic impact; UK; gross domestic product (GDP); industry; lockdown

1.0 Introduction

The Coronavirus brought a world health calamity, requiring several governments to implement drastic preventative solutions to stem the deadly virus transmission, through worldwide lockdowns and social isolation. As a result, numerous enterprises were forced to shut down, and the national economy was altered in every way. Even though all countries and businesses are affected, the effects vary greatly (Barua, 2020). The length and nature of the lockdown and the social distancing steps enforced by authorities to curb the coronavirus spread have resulted in asymmetric consequences not just across nations but also among economic areas and in every country’s demand and supply networks. This imbalance of the economic shock might signal that forecasting the gross domestic product (GDP) will be difficult and that the actual values may deviate remarkably from those speculated (Flynn et al., 2020).

Before an official lockdown, was declared late March 2020, the UK government issued its first social distancing guidance in early March 2020. Consumer demand fell, businesses and factories closed, and supply chains were disrupted, as they were in other afflicted nations. However, early statistics suggested that the UK was less afflicted than other European nations. As the epidemic progressed, the UK’s performance deteriorated compared to those of other European countries. While initially, significant emphasis was placed on the British government superior presentation in contract to other nations, the UK government has since sought to portray the illness spread in a favorable light (Wylie, 2020).

The unpredictable and shifting circumstances make projecting economic progress and anticipating present and future financial repercussions difficult for various reasons. factors like the COVID-19 global nature (Barua, 2020), which disrupted demand and supply chains, mass transit regulations, national cost-cutting- cutting almost all enterprise, the virus’s long duration, the great job losses and dramatic increase in joblessness rates, how learning and other businesses are transported, and the absence of same technique that can be used to foresee future performance. The government’s capacity to act and take mitigating steps to achieve a balanced recovery of all sectors will be limited by business stagnation, a loss in national tax revenue, and a decline in GDP (Alradhawi et al.). For future scheme and allocation of the already-stretched measures, statistics on the presentation of various fields and precise forecasting of presentation and regaining are required. Furthermore, a reliable forecasting model that considers the virus’s mu